startup-financial-modeling
- Repo stars 36,312
- Author updated Live
- Author repo agents
- Domain
- Engineering
- Compatible agents
-
- Claude Code
- Cursor
- Cline
- Codex
- Windsurf
- Gemini CLI
- +20
- Trust score
- 92 / 100 · audit passed
- Author / version / license
- @wshobson · v1.0.0 · no license declared
- Token usage
- Lean
- Setup complexity
- Guided setup
- External API key
- Not required
- Operating systems
- Unspecified (assume cross-platform)
- Runtime requirements
- No special requirements
- Permissions
-
- Read-only
- Write / modify
- Shell exec
- Network behavior
- Local-only
- Install commands
- 26 variants
Profile is derived at build time from SKILL.md and install vectors. Subject to drift from author intent.
Heads up: 未限定 allowed-tools,默认拥有全部工具权限。
---
name: startup-financial-modeling
description: Build comprehensive 3-5 year financial models with revenue projections, cost structures, cash fl…
category: engineering
runtime: no special runtime
---
# startup-financial-modeling output preview
## PART A: Task fit
- Use case: Build comprehensive 3-5 year financial models with revenue projections, cost structures, cash flow analysis, and scenario planning for early-stage startups. Use this skill when creating financial projections, calculating burn rate or runway, modeling fundraising scenarios, or preparing investor-ready financials for a seed or Series A raise..
- Inputs: target material, constraints, expected output, and acceptance criteria.
- Evidence boundary: follow “Overview / Core Components / Revenue Model” and do not present inference as author intent.
## PART B: Execution result
- **01** The card summarizes the use case; runtime output centers on “Build comprehensive 3-5 year financial models with revenue projections, cost structures, cash flow analysis, and scenario planning for early-stage startups. Use this skill when creating financial projections, calculating burn rate or runway, modeling fundraising scenarios, or preparing investor-ready financials for a seed or Series A raise.”.
- **02** When the source has headings, the agent prioritizes “Overview / Core Components / Revenue Model” so the result follows the author’s structure.
- **03** Typical output includes task judgment, concrete steps, required commands or file edits, validation, and follow-up options.
- **04** Risk context follows the fingerprint: read files, write/modify files, run shell commands; mostly runs locally; usually needs no extra API key.
## Running Rules
- read files, write/modify files, run shell commands; mostly runs locally; usually needs no extra API key.
- Validate with a small sample before expanding scope.
- Return the result, validation criteria, and next iteration options. The source does not require a stable slash command. After installation, invoke the skill by name and describe the task.
Name target files or source material, expected output, forbidden changes, and whether network or shell access is allowed. Permission fingerprint: read files, write/modify files, run shell commands.
Start with a small task and check whether the result follows “Overview / Core Components / Revenue Model”. Inspect diffs, logs, previews, or tests before expanding scope.
Confirm the final output includes a concrete result, evidence, and next action. If it stays generic, tighten inputs, boundaries, and acceptance criteria.
---
name: startup-financial-modeling
description: Build comprehensive 3-5 year financial models with revenue projections, cost structures, cash fl…
category: engineering
source: wshobson/agents
---
# startup-financial-modeling
## When to use
- Build comprehensive 3-5 year financial models with revenue projections, cost structures, cash flow analysis, and scena…
- Use it when the task has clear inputs, repeatable steps, and validation criteria.
## What to provide
- Target material, scope, expected result, and forbidden changes.
- Whether network, commands, file writes, or external services are allowed.
## Execution rules
- Organize steps around “Overview / Core Components / Revenue Model” and keep inference separate from source facts.
- read files, write/modify files, run shell commands; mostly runs locally; usually needs no extra API key.
- Validate with a small sample before expanding the task.
## Output requirements
- Return the deliverable, key evidence, validation method, and next action.
- Mark missing information as unknown; do not invent commands, platforms, or dependencies. The author source anchors workflow facts; repository files anchor sources and commands; Fluxly only adds fit, limitations, and quality judgment.
skill "startup-financial-modeling" {
input -> user goal + target files + boundaries + acceptance criteria
context -> Overview / Core Components / Revenue Model
rules -> SKILL.md triggers / order / output contract
runtime -> no special runtime | read files, write/modify files, run shell commands | mostly runs locally
guardrails -> usually needs no extra API key + small-sample validation + diff/log review
output -> copyable result + checklist + next iteration
} Startup Financial Modeling
Build comprehensive 3-5 year financial models with revenue projections, cost structures, cash flow analysis, and scenario planning for early-stage startups.
Overview
Financial modeling provides the quantitative foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and operational planning. Create realistic projections using cohort-based revenue modeling, detailed cost structures, and scenario analysis to support decision-making and investor presentations.
Core Components
Revenue Model
Cohort-Based Projections: Build revenue from customer acquisition and retention by cohort.
Formula:
MRR = Σ (Cohort Size × Retention Rate × ARPU)
ARR = MRR × 12
Key Inputs:
- Monthly new customer acquisitions
- Customer retention rates by month
- Average revenue per user (ARPU)
- Pricing and packaging assumptions
- Expansion revenue (upsells, cross-sells)
Cost Structure
Operating Expenses Categories:
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)
- Hosting and infrastructure
- Payment processing fees
- Customer support (variable portion)
- Third-party services per customer
Sales & Marketing (S&M)
- Customer acquisition cost (CAC)
- Marketing programs and advertising
- Sales team compensation
- Marketing tools and software
Research & Development (R&D)
- Engineering team compensation
- Product management
- Design and UX
- Development tools and infrastructure
General & Administrative (G&A)
- Executive team
- Finance, legal, HR
- Office and facilities
- Insurance and compliance
Cash Flow Analysis
Components:
- Beginning cash balance
- Cash inflows (revenue, fundraising)
- Cash outflows (operating expenses, CapEx)
- Ending cash balance
- Monthly burn rate
- Runway (months of cash remaining)
Formula:
Runway = Current Cash Balance / Monthly Burn Rate
Monthly Burn = Monthly Revenue - Monthly Expenses
Headcount Planning
Role-Based Hiring Plan: Track headcount by department and role.
Key Metrics:
- Fully-loaded cost per employee
- Revenue per employee
- Headcount by department (% of total)
Typical Ratios (Early-Stage SaaS):
- Engineering: 40-50%
- Sales & Marketing: 25-35%
- G&A: 10-15%
- Customer Success: 5-10%
Financial Model Structure
Three-Scenario Framework
Conservative Scenario (P10):
- Slower customer acquisition
- Lower pricing or conversion
- Higher churn rates
- Extended sales cycles
- Used for cash management
Base Scenario (P50):
- Most likely outcomes
- Realistic assumptions
- Primary planning scenario
- Used for board reporting
Optimistic Scenario (P90):
- Faster growth
- Better unit economics
- Lower churn
- Used for upside planning
Time Horizon
Detailed Projections: 3 Years
- Monthly detail for Year 1
- Monthly detail for Year 2
- Quarterly detail for Year 3
High-Level Projections: Years 4-5
- Annual projections
- Key metrics only
- Support long-term planning
Detailed section: Step-by-Step Process
Originally a 2763-byte section in this SKILL.md. Moved to references/details.md to fit Codex's 8 KB skill body cap.
Business Model Templates
SaaS Financial Model
Revenue Drivers:
- New MRR (customers × ARPU)
- Expansion MRR (upsells)
- Contraction MRR (downgrades)
- Churned MRR (lost customers)
Key Ratios:
- Gross margin: 75-85%
- S&M as % revenue: 40-60% (early stage)
- CAC payback: < 12 months
- Net retention: 100-120%
Example Projection:
Year 1: $500K ARR, 50 customers, $100K MRR by Dec
Year 2: $2.5M ARR, 200 customers, $208K MRR by Dec
Year 3: $8M ARR, 600 customers, $667K MRR by Dec
Marketplace Financial Model
Revenue Drivers:
- GMV (Gross Merchandise Value)
- Take rate (% of GMV)
- Net revenue = GMV × Take rate
Key Ratios:
- Take rate: 10-30% depending on category
- CAC for buyers vs. sellers
- Contribution margin: 60-70%
Example Projection:
Year 1: $5M GMV, 15% take rate = $750K revenue
Year 2: $20M GMV, 15% take rate = $3M revenue
Year 3: $60M GMV, 15% take rate = $9M revenue
E-Commerce Financial Model
Revenue Drivers:
- Traffic (visitors)
- Conversion rate
- Average order value (AOV)
- Purchase frequency
Key Ratios:
- Gross margin: 40-60%
- Contribution margin: 20-35%
- CAC payback: 3-6 months
Services / Agency Financial Model
Revenue Drivers:
- Billable hours or projects
- Hourly rate or project fee
- Utilization rate
- Team capacity
Key Ratios:
- Gross margin: 50-70%
- Utilization: 70-85%
- Revenue per employee
Fundraising Integration
Funding Scenario Modeling
Pre-Money Valuation: Based on metrics and comparables.
Dilution:
Post-Money = Pre-Money + Investment
Dilution % = Investment / Post-Money
Use of Funds: Allocate funding to extend runway and achieve milestones.
Example:
Raise: $5M at $20M pre-money
Post-Money: $25M
Dilution: 20%
Use of Funds:
- Product Development: $2M (40%)
- Sales & Marketing: $2M (40%)
- G&A and Operations: $0.5M (10%)
- Working Capital: $0.5M (10%)
Milestone-Based Planning
Identify Key Milestones:
- Product launch
- First $1M ARR
- Break-even on CAC
- Series A fundraise
Funding Amount: Ensure runway to achieve next milestone + 6 months buffer.
Common Pitfalls
Pitfall 1: Overly Optimistic Revenue
- New startups rarely hit aggressive projections
- Use conservative customer acquisition assumptions
- Model realistic churn rates
Pitfall 2: Underestimating Costs
- Add 20% buffer to expense estimates
- Include fully-loaded compensation
- Account for software and tools
Pitfall 3: Ignoring Cash Flow Timing
- Revenue ≠ cash (payment terms)
- Expenses paid before revenue collected
- Model cash conversion carefully
Pitfall 4: Static Headcount
- Hiring takes time (3-6 months to fill roles)
- Ramp time for productivity (3-6 months)
- Account for attrition (10-15% annually)
Pitfall 5: Not Scenario Planning
- Single scenario is never accurate
- Always model conservative case
- Plan for what you'll do if base case fails
Model Validation
Sanity Checks:
- Revenue growth rate is achievable (3x in Year 2, 2x in Year 3)
- Unit economics are realistic (LTV/CAC > 3, payback < 18 months)
- Burn multiple is reasonable (< 2.0 in Year 2-3)
- Headcount scales with revenue (revenue per employee growing)
- Gross margin is appropriate for business model
- S&M spending aligns with CAC and growth targets
Benchmark Against Peers: Compare key metrics to similar companies at similar stage.
Investor Feedback: Share model with advisors or investors for feedback on assumptions.
Quick Start
To create a startup financial model:
- Define business model - Revenue drivers and pricing
- Project revenue - Cohort-based with retention
- Model costs - COGS, S&M, R&D, G&A by month
- Plan headcount - Hiring by role and department
- Calculate cash flow - Revenue - expenses = burn/runway
- Compute metrics - CAC, LTV, burn multiple, runway
- Create scenarios - Conservative, base, optimistic
- Validate assumptions - Sanity check and benchmark
- Integrate fundraising - Model funding rounds and milestones
Decide Fit First
Design Intent
How To Use It
Boundaries And Review